Pre-1949 Chinese Bonds: How Much of a Litigation Threat Do They Pose...

As part of the international debt class that I'm teaching this term with Steve and Lee, we spent a couple of sessions discussing the various lawsuits that have been brought in US courts over China's defaulted pre-1949 debt.  The discussions have been a lot of fun because the students have had interesting perspectives on the question of whether the governments of mainland China and Taiwan need to continue to be concerned about these irritating lawsuits popping up (especially in the age of Trump, given that some of his ardent supporters in Tennessee appear to be big and vociferous holders of these antique debt instruments).

Among the interesting issues that were discussed were whether China's persistent refusal to even engage the debt holders amounted to the kind of "uniquely recalcitrant" debtor behavior that resulted in the New York granting an injunction against Argentina in the infamous NML litigation in 2011 and 2012. This is important because an NML type argument, via the priority clauses in a number of the old Chinese loans (particularly those that were issued in US dollars and via US banks), could be the key to resuscitating these old claims.

Reading cases such as Jackson v. PRC, and especially the US Statement of Interest that was filed there, are enough to convert even the most ardent legal formalists into realists. And, if so, the fact that the present inhabitant of the white house has (maybe, kinda . . .) shown more sympathy towards these holders of antique Chinese bonds than any prior US president in over a half century may be quite relevant.

I've asked our students, if they are willing, to post their views on these matters in the comments (and maybe even links to their papers).  They are quite interesting.