Bankruptcy Filings Drop 10% in 2015

According to the latest figures from Epiq Systems, total U.S. bankruptcy filings dropped 10% in 2015. The yearly total was 819,240 compared to 910,090 the previous year. As bankruptcy experts know, these figures are low. In 2015, there were 2.55 bankruptcy petitions per 1,000 persons, the lowest figure since 1989, ignoring the statistical gyrations around the 2005 bankruptcy law. If the decline keeps up, we won't even have to ignore the 2005-06 statistical gyrations for the statement to be true.

Last January, when forecasting the number of 2015 filings, I wrote, "a good estimate for 2015 bankruptcy filings is 800,000." That turned out to be not too bad of a forecast, off by only 2,5%. As the model I used seems to have been a good prediction, I will try it again and post the results here on Credit Slips.

Before I go off to crunch numbers, one other thing caught my eye in the latest numbers. The daily filing rate for December was only 2,446, which was a year-over-year decline of 14.8%. The decline in U.S. bankruptcy filings had been slowing, and I was expecting the decline to eventually flatten out. December is an unusually slow month for bankruptcy filings, but it is an unusually slow month every year. I am always cautious about extrapolating too much from one month of data, but the size of the decline in December took me by surprise.